Gaming & Gambling

Lula's Re-election and the Future of Betting in Brazil

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Market outlook and status of Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,394/2026

TozziniFreire · LOYRA | October 26, 2026

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected on October 25, keeping in office the head of the Executive Branch who issued the ban on fixed-odds betting through Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,394/2026, in force since September 25, 2026. The fate of the measure, however, now rests mainly with the National Congress, which must convert the MP into law, and with the Federal Supreme Court (STF), which is reviewing its constitutionality.

Market scenarios

In the scenario most favorable to the industry, Congress or the STF reverses the ban, in whole or in part. Among the 99 amendments filed, some would limit the ban to online casinos and preserve sports betting. In the least favorable scenario, the newly elected Congress upholds the ban, and the Federal Government loses revenues already included in the 2027 federal budget proposal.

Even with a reversal, the market is unlikely to return immediately to its pre-MP level of activity. Many operators began wind-down processes after the MP was published, and disputes over license fees, compensation claims and contract terminations are expected to continue in the courts.

What to watch in the coming weeks

  • Justice Luiz Fux's decision on the request for a preliminary injunction suspending the MP, challenged in ADIs Nos. 8024, 8027 and 8028.
  • The public hearing at the STF on November 3, with 26 participants, including the Ministry of Finance, the Office of the Prosecutor General, industry associations, the Brazilian Football Confederation and ten football clubs.
  • The setting up of the joint committee in Congress and the appointment of its rapporteur.
  • November 23: end of the first 60-day period and likely automatic extension of the MP. The final deadline for conversion into law is estimated at March 4, 2027.

The full note, including the MP timeline and its possible outcomes, is available for download.

Download the full note (PDF)

Partners Jun Makuta and Caio Loureiro, together with counsel Adriana Ferreira Tavares, co-lead TozziniFreire's Gaming & Betting practice.

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